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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: June 25, 2024

Event Date
June 25, 2024
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
ET
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Most of the Southeast region saw above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation this past month. One exception was South Florida, which experienced heavy rain and flooding from an area of low pressure that tracked across the Peninsula around the middle of June. Several locations in Florida, northern Virginia, and the Caribbean are on track to record one of their warmest Junes on record. Abnormal Dryness (D0) emerged across a large portion of the region, while Moderate Drought (D1) emerged across parts of Virginia and Florida. The Caribbean remained drought-free. 

Excessive heat and rapid onset drought are likely across parts of the region over the next few weeks. Above-average temperatures and precipitation are forecast over the next three months, with drier-than-average conditions expected across the interior of the region. Flood risk is near normal for the region this summer.  

Check out the recording below to hear more on Southeast climate conditions and a special presentation, "2024 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook” from Matthew Rosencrans at the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC). We have posted a webinar summary and recording on drought.gov for those who were unable to participate in the live event or wish to share it with others.

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • This webinar contains a special presentation on the "2024 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook."

 

Timestamp
0:58

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperatures were above average across the region. Some locations reached 100°F. Excessive heat warnings were issued across Puerto Rico.
  • Precipitation was below average across most of the region. Several locations have gone multiple weeks without any measurable rain. A tropical disturbance dropped up to a foot of rain across parts of South Florida in mid-June, resulting in flash flooding and emergency declarations. Above-average precipitation was observed across the interior of the region. Precipitation was variable across the U.S. Caribbean.
  • Drought conditions worsened across much of the region. Abnormal Dryness (D0) emerged across a large portion of the Southeast. Moderate Drought (D1) returned to the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and in pockets of Georgia and South Carolina. The former is expected to persist over the next several months. Moderate and Severe Drought (D1-D2) emerged across the Citrus belt of South Florida but has largely been eliminated. The U.S. Caribbean remained drought-free. No new drought development is expected across the Southeast or Caribbean.
  • El Niño has ended, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are present. La Niña is likely to develop later this summer and persist through the upcoming winter.
  • The next two weeks are expected to be warmer than normal with excessive heat likely across parts of Virginia and North Carolina. Wetter-than-average conditions are expected across the northern tier of the region and South Florida. Rapid onset drought is possible from Virginia to Georgia. Over the next month, above-average temperatures are expected across the region. Wetter-than-average conditions are also expected, except across Tennessee.
  • Over the next three months, temperatures and precipitation are expected to be above average across most of the Southeast and Caribbean.
  • For more information, contact Chris Fuhrmann.
  • Additional regional climate and drought information:

 

Timestamp
9:07

Water Resources Outlook

Speaker: Todd Hamill, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • The 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows are mostly near normal across the Southeast, with a trend towards below normal due to recent dryness. No rivers are currently in flood stage. As we shift into ENSO-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific and a hot and dry summer pattern, we expect normal river flooding over the next several months.
  • Looking Ahead: This time of year is typically quiet unless there is tropical weather. It takes significantly more rainfall to produce river flooding in the summer months than it does in the January–April time frame due to warmer temperatures and greater competition for water. The best chances for flooding in the Southeast will be from pop-up thunderstorms on a smaller scale or tropical activity on a larger scale.  
  • Overall, through the 3-month period, the river flood risk is near normal through summer as the southeast U.S. is becoming less active and competition for water has increased.
  • Additional streamflow and flood information is available from the NWS River Forecast Centers:
  • View a recording of the May 2024 NWS Water Resources Outlook for the Southeast.
  • For more information, contact Todd Hamill.

 

Timestamp
18:13

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia

  • Hot and dry conditions have stressed crops, workers, animals, and crop scientists.
  • Hot temperatures have helped produce hay but have limited regrowth.
  • Growing degree days are right on the historical average and above last year’s accumulation.
  • Very wet conditions in southern Florida have eliminated drought and, limited field work, but areas to the north are still dry.
  • Blueberry, peach, and watermelon crops are near the end of harvest.
  • For more information, contact Pam Knox.
  • Additional Information:

 

Timestamp
24:05

Special Presentation: 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

Speaker: Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

  • There has been one named tropical storm so far this season, Alberto, which made landfall in Mexico. 
  • 2024 Atlantic Outlook: An above-normal season is likely. Current forecast ranges anticipate 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes. This range is well above the season average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. 
  • This above- normal outlook is due to record warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, with anticipated La Niña reinforcing. Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are as warm as they typically are in September, which is the warmest time of the year for that area.
  • During high activity periods, the largest increase in hurricane landfalls is along the Atlantic Coast. High activity also increases the chance of multiple landfalls reaching the same area, which can be particularly devastating for a community already impacted by a tropical storm or hurricane.
  • Prepare now. It only takes one storm! 
  • Sources of information during the season:
  • For more information, contact Matthew Rosencrans.

 

Timestamp
42:05

Q&A and Closing

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Register for the next webinars!
    • July 23, 2024: Urban Heat: the Role of Buildings, Shade, and Green Infrastructure on Urban Heat Islands
    • August 24, 2024: The new National Water Prediction Service (NWPS)
    • September 24, 2024: Fire Weather Portal for the Southeast 

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems

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National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).

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