Drought Early Warning Update for the Midwest U.S.

Key Points

• A record-breaking heat wave has been making its way across the central U.S. this week, with temperatures peaking in the Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread temperatures from 90–100°F.
• Above-normal temperatures are expected to continue through at least the end of June, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (Figure 1). Below-normal precipitation is also expected across much of the Midwest during this same time period (Figure 2).
• While the Midwest region is currently almost entirely drought-free, there are some areas of concern that are abnormally dry (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Missouri). In addition, portions of western Iowa remain in moderate to severe drought (D1–D2) (Figure 3). 
• However, the forecasted hot and dry conditions will likely lead to the rapid intensification of drought conditions in portions of the Midwest over the next few weeks (Figure 4). This rapid intensification of drought is sometimes called "flash drought." Flash drought is set in motion by below-normal precipitation, accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, winds, and/or solar radiation.
• Potential impacts of the heat and rapid intensification of drought include: reduced moisture/drying soils for agriculture and lawns/gardens, human and animal health issues related to the heat, negative ecological impacts, increased potential for wildfire and stress on the energy system.
• In the longer term, the outlooks are favoring the continuation of hot and dry conditions for most of the region into July, as well as the July–September time frame. As a result, the seasonal drought outlook indicates that drought development is likely over portions of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Missouri, and persistence and further development in Iowa (Figure 5).