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Regional Drought Update Date
June 24, 2021
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Drought Status Update

Drought Update for the Intermountain West

DEWS Regions:
Intermountain West
States:
Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming
Update Status:

NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.

The Southwest monsoon is coming. Please be better than last year!  

Key Points

  • Exceptional drought covers over 50% of the Intermountain West.
  • Short-term outlooks indicate that the Southwest monsoon may begin by early July.
    • Longer-term outlooks show equal chances of above- or below-normal monsoon rainfall this season.
  • Higher than normal temperatures and high wildfire risk are expected through summer.
Current Conditions
U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Intermountain West | June 22, 2021
U.S. Drought Monitor

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Last Updated: 06/22/21
Main Stats
87%
of Arizona is in Extreme to Exceptional (D3–D4) Drought
30%
of Colorado is in Extreme to Exceptional (D3–D4) Drought
63%
of New Mexico is in Extreme to Exceptional (D3–D4) Drought
93%
of Utah is in Extreme to Exceptional (D3–D4) Drought
9%
of Wyoming is in Extreme to Exceptional (D3–D4) Drought

Recent and Current Conditions

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions

  • Over half (57%) of the combined Intermountain West region is in Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) drought.
    • Extreme (D3) drought conditions have been in place in this region since May 2020.
    • The extent of Exceptional (D4) drought in the Intermountain West reached a peak of 45% area in December 2020, a new record for the region.
  • Moderate (D1) or worse drought has been in the region since August 2009.

U.S. Drought Monitor 1-Month Change Map

  • Southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico have seen a 1- to 3-category drought improvement over 1 month.
  • Drought conditions have remained or deteriorated across the rest of the region.
A map of the Intermountain West showing the change in the US drought monitor from May 25 to June 22. Colorado and central New Mexico have seen a 1- to 3-category improvement while parts of northern and central Wyoming have seen a 1- to 2- category deterioration.
1-month U.S. Drought Monitor change map, showing where drought has improved, remained the same, or worsened from May 25 to June 22, 2021. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.

State Drought Plans, Declarations, or States of Emergency in Effect

Arizona Colorado New Mexico Utah
Drought declaration from 2007 that has not been rescinded State Drought Mitigation and Response Plan shifted from Phase 2 to Phase 3 (full activation) on November 30, 2020 Drought declaration and activation of the State Drought Task Force, December 9, 2020 Drought state of emergency issued on March 17, 2021

2021 Precipitation So Far

  • June is typically the driest month of the year for Arizona and Utah.
  • Annual precipitation-to-date has been below average for all Intermountain West states, except Colorado, although Colorado precipitation has primarily focused in the eastern half of the state.

Arizona

Average monthly temperature and rainfall for Arizona with January through May 2021 state-wide values. Near average precipitation in January followed by very-much below average precipitation in February, March, April and May.

Colorado

Average monthly temperature and rainfall for Colorado with January through May 2021 state-wide values. Statewide precipitation was above average in March and May, near-average or below-average in all other months.

New Mexico

Average monthly temperature and rainfall for New Mexico with January through May 2021 state-wide values. New Mexico had below average precipitation in January through April. Near-average for May.

Utah

Average monthly temperature and rainfall for Utah with January through May 2021 state-wide values. Shows below average precipitation in all months with only about half the average precipitation for April and about a quarter of the average precipitation for May.

Wyoming

Average monthly temperature and rainfall for Wyoming with January through May 2021 state-wide values. Shows above average precipitation for February, near-average for March. Below average precipitation for all other months so far this year.
State-wide average monthly temperature (lines) and precipitation (bars) for Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming including the 30-year average for all months (red bars for precipitation and orange line for temperature) with January through May 2021 state-wide values (blue bars for precipitation and green line for temperature). Source: Southern Regional Climate Center.

June Precipitation

  • June is typically the driest month of the year for Southwest states.
  • Most of the precipitation in the region in June has been in southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico.
  • Most of Utah and Arizona have received 0.0 inches of precipitation for June, so far.

Precipitation Conditions: June 1-22, 2021

Month-to-date precipitation totals through June 22, 2021. Most of Utah and Arizona have received 0 inches of precipitation so far this month.

Month-to-date percent of normal precipitation to June 22, 2021.
Top: June-to-date precipitation totals through June 22, 2021. Bottom: June-to-date percent of normal precipitation through June 22, 2021. Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center.

Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)

4-Week EDDI for June 17, 2021

  • EDDI values have been near the long-term average for this time of year for eastern Colorado and New Mexico over the past month.
  • There is high evaporative demand for this time of year for Arizona, western Colorado, and southern Utah.
  • Very high EDDI values for northern Utah and Wyoming.
4-week averaged Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) as of June 17, 2021. Areas of average to low EDDI are shown in white and blue and cover most the central Great Plains. Areas of high EDDI are shown in yellow and red and cover southern California, northern Utah, and the northern United States from Montana and Wyoming to Maine.
4-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) as of June 17, 2021. Source: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories (ESRL) Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL).

Forecasts and Seasonal Outlooks

Summer 2021 Heat and Wildfire

Heat:

  • The Intermountain West experienced a heatwave with extreme and record-setting temperatures in June.  
    • Learn more about the record-breaking heatwave impacting the West from Climate.gov.
  • The seasonal temperature outlook shows that above-normal temperatures are very likely this summer across the West.
    • Excessive heat is forecast for the first week of July.
  • Extreme heat will likely worsen drought conditions and wildfire risk.

8-14 Day Temperature Hazards Outlook

Map of the US showing increased risk of excessive heat over the western and northwestern U.S. for the first week of July 2021.
8-14 Day Probabilistic Temperature Hazards Outlook, showing the risk of hazardous temperatures for July 1-7, 2021. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Fire:

Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks: June and July 2021

Map of the western US showing the significant wildfire potential for the month of June 2021. There is an elevated risk of fire potential over the western U.S.

Map of the western US showing the significant wildfire potential for the month of July 2021. There is an elevated risk of fire potential over the western U.S.
Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for June 2021 (top) and July 2021 (bottom). Source: National Interagency Fire Center.

8-14 Day Outlook

  • There is a high chance that monsoonal precipitation will develop over the Southwest within the first week of July.
    • The latest outlook shows increased odds of above-normal precipitation for Arizona, New Mexico, Southern Utah, and southern Nevada.
  • Below-normal precipitation is likely in the 8-14 day outlook for Wyoming and eastern Colorado.
  • Above-normal temperatures are most likely for northern Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, and northern Colorado, while odds slightly favor below-normal temperatures for eastern New Mexico.

8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature outlook, showing the probability of exceeding the median temperature for the 1–7 July 2021. Odds favor above normal temperatures for the western U.S. while odds favor below-normal temperatures for the southeast US.
8–14 day temperature outlook, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions from July 1–7, 2021. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook

Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day precipitation outlook, showing the probability of exceeding the median precipitation for the July 1-7, 2021. Odds favor below normal precipitation for the western US above normal precipitation for the eastern US and midwest.
8–14 day precipitation outlook, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions from July 1–7, 2021. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

1-Month Outlook for July

  • There is an equal chance of above or below normal precipitation for the Four-Corners States
    • The month of July can see high precipitation totals over the southwest due to the monsoon onset.
  • Below normal precipitation is the most likely outcome for Wyoming in July
  • There is a high chance of above normal temperatures for the Intermountain West in July

July 2021 Temperature Outlook 

Climate Prediction Center 1-month temperature outlook, showing the probability of below-, above-, or near-normal temperature conditions for July 2021. Odds favor above normal temperatures for most of the western U.S. with the highest odds over Utah and Nevada.
1-month temperature outlook, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions during July 2021. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

July 2021 Precipitation Outlook 

Climate Prediction Center 1-month precipitation outlook, showing the probability of below-, above-, or near-normal precipitation conditions for July 2021. Odds favor below normal precipitation for the northern half of the western US and above normal precipitation for the Southeast US.
1-month precipitation outlook, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions during July 2021. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

July-September Seasonal Outlook

  • For July to September, there is a greater chance for above-normal temperatures across the Southwest.
  • Below-normal precipitation is favored for the Intermountain West region through the summer. Arizona has an equal chance of above- or below-normal precipitation.

3-Month Temperature Outlook

Climate Prediction Center 3-month temperature outlook, valid for July to September 2021. Odds favor above normal temperatures for all of the Intermountain West Region.
3-month temperature outlook, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions for July to September 2021. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

3-Month Precipitation Outlook

Climate Prediction Center 3-month precipitation outlook, valid for July to September 2021. Odds favor below normal precipitation for the northern half of the western US and northern New Mexico, above normal temperatures for the southeast US.
3-month precipitation outlook, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions for July to September 2021. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Drought Outlook

  • Long-term drought conditions are forecast to continue at least through September across the Intermountain West.
  • In anticipation of summer monsoonal precipitation, the drought outlook shows drought improving, but remaining, along the Mexican border. 

3-Month Drought Outlook

Seasonal drought outlook for the U.S. and Puerto Rico, predicting whether drought will improve, worsen, or stay the same between June 17 and September 30, 2021. Current drought conditions over the western U.S. are forecast to persist while drought development is likely for the Pacific Northwest.
U.S. seasonal drought outlook for June 17 to September 30, 2021, showing the likelihood that drought will remain, improve, worsen, or develop. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Climate Patterns

Probability of El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral Conditions

A bar graph showing the probability of El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions from June 2021 to March 2022. ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome throughout summer, followed by possible La Niña conditions in autumn and winter.
ENSO forecasts from the International Research Institute, showing the probability of El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions from June 2021 to March 2022. Source: International Research Institute. 

State-Based Conditions and Impacts

Arizona

  • 100% of Arizona is in some measure of drought, with 87% in extreme or exceptional drought.
  • The Salt River reservoir system is 73% full, down from total system levels at 94% full last year.
  • Majority of pasturelands across the state are at 50% below average or greater.
  • Arizona had 21 wildland fires in June, with 345,776 acres burned.
  • A record-breaking heatwave brought 6 consecutive days of 115°F or higher in Phoenix area.
  • Lake Mead dropped to 1069.69 feet, which could trigger a Tier 1 shortage by the Central Arizona Project (CAP) in August (a Tier 1 shortage would reduce by 500,000 acre-feet).

 

Average maximum temperature departure from average for Arizona, from May 25 to June 23, 2021.
Average maximum temperatures for Arizona as a departure from average, for May 25 to June 23, 2021. The average maximum temperature in June was 2° to 8° higher than normal June maximum temperatures. Source: Western Regional Climate Center.

Colorado

  • There is a persistent and large gradient in drought conditions in Colorado. The east half of the state is mostly drought-free. The western slopes are in severe to exceptional drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. 
  • Colorado has been much hotter and drier than normal since the start of June. 
  • Water supply for major municipalities is still in good shape following a wet spring. 
  • Cumulative runoff has been well below normal, particularly west of the Continental Divide. Blue Mesa Reservoir and McPhee Reservoir are holding record low storage.
  • June has brought record heat to the western slopes. Cortez, Colorado tied its all-time record high of 102°F on both June 16 and 17. Cortez’ observation record extends back to the 1920s. Grand Junction and Monument tied all-time June high temperature records, 105°F and 104°F respectively.
Heat statistics for the week of June 12-19 in Colorado. Cortez and Antero reservoir tied their all-time high record temperatures (102 and 88 degrees F, respectively). Several other locations tied their June record high.
Colorado heat records for the week of June 12-19. Source: Colorado Climate Center.
June-to-date percent of normal precipitation for Colorado, through June 21, 2021.
Percent of normal precipitation for Colorado from June 1 to 21, 2021. Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center.

New Mexico

  • Recent rainfall over eastern New Mexico has improved but not removed drought conditions.
  • Much of the state continues to struggle with long-term drought from the lack of summer precipitation from both 2019 and 2020. The 12-month period from April 2021 to May 2020 was the driest on record state-wide.
  • Long-term drought shows up clearly in surface water levels in the Rio Grande and Pecos Basins. For example, Elephant Butte storage is 8% of capacity.
Map of storages on the Rio Grande and Pecos River Basins. Elephant Butte is 8% full, Caballo is at 9%, Sumner is at 14%, Brantley is at 44% and Avalon is at 31%.
Rio Grande and Pecos River Basin storage as of June 23, 2021. Source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

Utah

  • June remains incredibly dry, with many areas not seeing any precipitation since mid-to-late May.
  • The recent early June heat waves set numerous daily records, with many locations setting 5-6 daily records for the month so far, including Salt Lake City tying the hottest temperature ever recorded (107°F).
  • Streamflow and reservoir levels reflect the poor spring runoff period, with 12% of gauged rivers flowing at all-time lows, 34% of rivers flowing below the 10th percentile, and another 22% of rivers flowing below the 25th percentile. Four rivers are currently reporting “no-flow.”
    • Lake Powell currently stands at 34% of capacity, which is nearing the record low level.
    • The Great Salt Lake level is only 6 inches away from its record low level, based on observations dating back to the mid 18th century.
  • Soil moisture observations from across the state show conditions at approximately the 10th percentile and trending lower over the month of June.
  • Vegetative drought metrics show extreme stress to the state’s vegetation in response to the recent record heat waves, the lack of precipitation, and the depleted soil moisture.
  • Utah’s drought severity has worsened as a result of June’s conditions, and expansion and degradation of drought categories are expected across Northern Utah and the final remaining D3 categories across eastern and central Utah, which are expected to see expanding D4 coverage going forward.  
    • Anecdotal reports from the agricultural community reflect the data indicating that the current drought is the worst seen by these communities in generations. 
    • Increasing water restrictions are occurring in urban population centers, and we expect this trend to continue through the summer.
Streamflow conditions as of June 23rd. Note that four rivers are reporting “no-flow” with only 24% of rivers reporting flows above the 25th-percentile.
Utah streamflow conditions as of June 23, 2021. Note that four rivers are reporting “no-flow” with only 24% of rivers reporting flows above the 25th-percentile.
Utah reservoir levels as of June 21st. Northern Utah reservoirs with multiyear storage have fared the best so-far, but are depleted from a year-over-year perspective. Lake Powell currently stands at 35% of storage capacity.
Utah reservoir levels as of June 21, 2021. Northern Utah reservoirs with multiyear storage have fared the best so far, but are depleted from a year-over-year perspective. Lake Powell currently stands at 35% of storage capacity. Source: Utah Department of Natural Resources.
Vegetation Health Index for Utah and surrounding states, showing the vegetation health or a combined estimation of moisture and thermal conditions. Unfavorable vegetation conditions exist across much of Utah.
Vegetation Health Index (VHI) for Utah as of June 23, 2021. VHI is a proxy characterizing vegetation health or a combined estimation of moisture and current conditions. Source: NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, via Drought.gov.

Wyoming

  • June has been hot. The last 30 days have seen average mean temperatures for the entire state above the 1991-2020 average, with over three-quarters of the state at 6°F to 9°F above average.  
  • June has also been dry. Over the last 30 days only a few small pockets in the southeast are at or above median precipitation, and a majority of the state is under the 10th percentile in terms of precipitation received. 
  • These conditions have led to an expansion of drought–both an increase in area and degradation in categories–leaving only 2.4% of the state not in a drought category.  About 9% of the state is in Extreme Drought (D3), now affecting 10 counties.

30-day percent of normal precipitation for Wyoming, from May 25 to June 23, 2021. Most of the state saw below normal conditions.

30-day average mean temperature as a departure from the 1991-2020 average for Wyoming. Valid for May 25 to June 23, 2021. Temperatures have been above average across the state.
30-day precipitation percentile (top) and average mean temperature departure from the 1991-2020 average (bottom). Source: Wyoming State Climate Office.
  • Soil moisture continues to deteriorate. Except for the far southeast corner of the state where soil moisture is in the 10th to 20th percentile, the entire state is experiencing conditions at or below the 10th percentile, with more than half of the state at the 2nd or less percentile.
Soil moisture percentiles for Wyoming as of June 23, 2021. All but the southeast corner of the state is experiencing soil moisture conditions at or below the 10th percentile.
Wyoming soil moisture percentiles, as of June 23, 2021. Source: Wyoming State Climate Office.
  • Current maps, conditions, and resources for Wyoming are available at drought.wyo.gov.

For More Information

More local information is available from the following resources:

In Case You Missed It

Upcoming Events

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Erin Saffell
Arizona State Climatologist/Arizona State University

Erin Boyle
Service Hydrologist, National Weather Service, Tucson, Arizona

Peter Goble
Colorado Climate Center/Colorado State University

Simon Wang and Jon Meyer
Utah Climate Center/Utah State University

Tony Bergantino
Water Resources Data System – Wyoming State Climate Office

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the offices of the state climatologist for Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. The purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Intermountain West based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought updates as conditions evolve.

 

Partner(s)
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

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National Weather Service (NWS)

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Arizona State Climate Office

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Colorado Climate Center

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Utah Climate Center

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Wyoming State Climate Office

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