A look back at drought in 2021.
Key Points
- 2021 began with 45% of the Intermountain West in exceptional (D4) drought but ended without any D4 drought and only 26% of the region still in extreme (D3) drought.
- The summer monsoon and December precipitation greatly improved drought conditions west of the Continental Divide.
- Extreme (D3) drought expanded over eastern Colorado in November, including the latest recorded snowfall on record, leading to the catastrophic fires in Boulder County in late December.
- Drought is expected to continue into spring in much of the region.
Current U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System region with data valid for January 4, 2022. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country.
Extreme (D3) drought persists within every state in the Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System.
U.S. Drought Monitor Categories
Current U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System region with data valid for January 4, 2022. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country.
Extreme (D3) drought persists within every state in the Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System.
Current Drought Conditions and Outlook
U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions
- On December 7, the remaining patches of exceptional (D4) drought was removed from the region.
- 18% of the region is still experiencing extreme (D3) drought.
- Extreme (D3) drought conditions have been in place in this region since May 2020.
- Moderate (D1) or worse drought has been in the region since August 2009.
Forecasts and Seasonal Outlooks
3-Month Outlook for Winter (January–March 2022)
- Odds favor above-normal temperatures for the southern U.S., including New Mexico and parts of Arizona.
- Odds favor below-normal precipitation for the southwestern U.S.
January–March Temperature Outlook
![Climate Prediction Center 3-month temperature outlook, showing the probability of exceeding the median temperature from January to March 2022. Odds favor above normal temperatures for the southern US, including New Mexico and parts of Arizona.](/sites/default/files/inline-images/cpc-temp-outlook-jfm22.gif)
January–March Precipitation Outlook
![Climate Prediction Center 3-month precipitation outlook, showing the probability of exceeding the median precipitation from January to March 2022. Odds favor below normal precipitation for the southwestern U.S.](/sites/default/files/inline-images/cpc-precip-outlook-jfm22_0.gif)
Seasonal Drought Outlook
- Drought is expected to continue for the Intermountain West through spring.
- The Climate Prediction Center's 3-month drought outlook shows drought remaining but improving for western Wyoming and northern Utah.
U.S. Drought Outlook: January 1–March 31, 2022
![A map of the southwestern United States showing the probability drought conditions persisting, improving, or developing from January 1 to March 31, 2022. Current drought conditions over the western U.S. are forecast to persist.](/sites/default/files/inline-images/imw-drought-outlook-jfm22.png)
Recap: 2021 Drought in the Intermountain West
Exceptional Drought in Winter in Spring 2021
- 2021 began with 45% of the Intermountain West in exceptional (D4) drought.
- Rainfall across the Intermountain West region was the second lowest on record for 2020, and the lowest since 1956.
- Some large mountain snow totals in February provided slight improvement, but it melted quickly and drought continued through spring.
Animation: 2021 U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions in the Intermountain West
![Animated GIF of a time series and map of the Intermountain West, showing the progression of drought conditions from the beginning to the end of 2021, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.](/sites/default/files/inline-images/usdm-imw-2021_0.gif)
U.S. Drought Monitor Change Map: 2021
![A map of the Intermountain West showing the change in the U.S. Drought Monitor from December 29, 2020 to December 28, 2021. Much of the Intermountain West saw drought improvement, with a 2 to 4-class improvement in much of Arizona. Northwestern Wyoming saw 1-4 class degradation over 2021.](/sites/default/files/inline-images/usdm-imw-change-52weeks-2021.png)
The 2021 Southwest Monsoon
- The largest improvement to drought conditions came across Arizona, New Mexico, and southern Utah and Colorado when a record-setting monsoon brought nearly a foot of rain to the Southwest.
- In 2021, Arizona measured its second wettest July on record, the wettest since 1919.
- Tucson Airport exceeded one foot of rainfall for the monsoon season.
Southeast Arizona Monsoon Rainfall Totals & Rankings
![Chart showing rainfall totals and historical rankings for monsoon season 2021, for locations across southeast Arizona. The locations and rainfall totals (in inches) are: Tucson Airport, 12.79; Nogales Airport, 15.65; Safford Airport, 7.38; Sierra Vista, 11.27; Oracle, 14.0; Willcox, 8.04; Picacho Peak, 11.4; and Ajo, 7.6](/sites/default/files/inline-images/southeast-az-monsoon-rankings.png)
Monsoon Rainfall: June 15–September 30, 2021
![Accumulated rainfall totals from 15 June to 30 September 2021 for Arizona locations. Monsoon 2021 rainfall was the wettest on record for Payson (7.65 inches above normal) and the Show Low Airport (5.47 inches above normal).](/sites/default/files/inline-images/monsoon-2021-rainfall-az.png)
Monsoon Rainfall for Tucson Airport
![: Accumulated rainfall since 15 June 2021 at Tucson, Arizona compared with all historical years. This monsoon season is the third wettest on record so far.](/sites/default/files/inline-images/monsoon-2021-rainfall-tucson-airport.jpg)
- Track the southwest U.S. monsoon:
- Parts of New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah received over double their normal precipitation for the monsoon season.
Hydrologic Drought Continues: Lake Mead Tier 1 Water Restrictions
- Lakes Powell and Mead are at their lowest level in over 30 years.
- Level 1 water shortages were announced by the Bureau of Reclamation on August 16, 2021.
![Map of the Intermountain West showing Bureau of Reclamation reservoir storage. As of 4 January 2022, Lake mead is at 57% of total capacity. Both Lake Mead and Lake Powell are at the lowest level in over 30 years.](/sites/default/files/inline-images/lake-mead-hoover-dam-storage-1-3-22.jpg)
A Snowy December Brought More Relief to the Drought-Stricken West
- Autumn 2021 ended with a warm and dry November for much of the West, leaving little snowpack in the mountains to start the climatological winter in December.
- Weather patterns changed in December, including an atmospheric river that brought plenty of snow to the western Rocky Mountains and strong frontal patterns that produced snow and rain across most western states, including Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.
![From December 4, 2021 to January 4, 2022 Snow Water Equivalent levels increased from below 50% of normal to above 150% of normal for the Sierra Nevadas and the Cascades, and the mountains of southern Utah and northern Arizona.](/sites/default/files/inline-images/nrcs-swe-west-dec4-jan4.jpg)
Fire and Late Snow: Drought Hits Hard East of the Rockies
- While spring was wet, summer and autumn were exceptionally dry for eastern Colorado and Wyoming.
- Moderate (D1) drought developed in October and had worsened to extreme (D3) drought by December.
- Northern Colorado’s Front Range recorded its latest first snowfall.
- Denver recorded its first measurable snow of the season on December 10, 2021. That snow total was only 0.3 inches and melted the same day.
- Southern Colorado’s Front recorded its latest first snowfall as well.
- Colorado Springs recorded its first measured snowfall of the season on December 31, 2021, nearly a month beyond the previous latest first measurable snowfall of December 2.
- Boulder County, CO fires mark the end of a “disastrous year of drought” for Colorado.
- From Climate.gov: Wet, then dry extremes contributed to devastating Marshall Fire in Colorado
- From KUNC: Extreme climate conditions, drought set the stage for winter wildfires
- From the Verge: Colorado fires close out a year of disastrous drought
- From PBS NewsHour: Colorado wildfire caused $513 million in damage, officials say
EDDI Changes from April 6–October 3 to July 5–December 30
![Map of Colorado showing the change in Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) for 2 overlapping 6-month periods: July 5–December 30 vs. April 6–October 3, 2021.](/sites/default/files/inline-images/co-change-eddi-6mo.jpeg)
For More Information
More local information is available from the following resources:
- Your state climatologist
- Your local National Weather Service office
- Western Water Assessment: Intermountain West Climate Dashboard
In Case You Missed It
- December 13, 2021: Southwest Drought Briefing
- December 2, 2021: Drought Monitoring and Reporting in Arizona: Building a Network for Drought Response (Virtual Workshop)
Upcoming Events
- January 27, 2022, 1 p.m. MT: Southwest Drought Briefing
Prepared By
Joel Lisonbee
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Erin Saffell
Arizona State Climatologist/Arizona State University
Peter Goble
Colorado Climate Center/Colorado State University
Jon Meyer
Utah Climate Center/Utah State University
Tony Bergantino
Water Resources Data System – Wyoming State Climate Office
Erin Boyle
Service Hydrologist, National Weather Service, Tucson, Arizona
Greg Heavener
Warning Coordination Meteorologist, National Weather Service, Pueblo, Colorado
This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the offices of the state climatologist for Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. The purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Intermountain West based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.