Latest forecasts show drought continuing into summer.

Key Points

Drought continues across the Intermountain West.
Snowpack flatlined through January and February and is currently a little below average for most of the Intermountain West.
A warm and dry spring is likely.

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Intermountain West | March 15, 2022

U.S. Drought Monitor

Current U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) region with data valid for March 15, 2022. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country.

18% of the Intermountain West DEWS region is experiencing extreme to exceptional drought (D3–D4).

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Last Updated: 03/15/22

of Arizona is in Extreme (D3) Drought

of Colorado is in Extreme (D3) Drought

39%

of New Mexico is in Extreme (D3) or Exceptional (D4) Drought

33%

of Utah is in Extreme (D3) Drought

20%

of Wyoming is in Extreme (D3) Drought

Current Drought Conditions and Outlook

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions

There has been little change in drought conditions across the Intermountain West.
Exceptional (D4) drought returned to the region in northeastern and southern New Mexico.
18% of the region is still experiencing extreme (D3) drought.
Extreme (D3) drought conditions have been in place in this region since May 2020.
Moderate (D1) or worse drought has been in the region since August 2009.

U.S. Drought Monitor 4-Week Change Map

U.S. Drought Monitor change map for the Intermountain West, showing how drought has improved or worsened from February 15 to March 15, 2022. Parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Wyoming, and Colorado have seen a 1-category degradation, and other parts of Colorado and Wyoming have seen a 1-category improvement. — U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map showing where drought has improved or worsened from February 15 to March 15, 2022. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.

Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

Upper Colorado River SWE is currently at 97% of median for this time of year.
Low precipitation totals in January and February were concerning. A few storms in late February and early March kept the snowpack accumulation near normal for this time of the season.
Snowpack usually reaches its peak accumulation in early April. Upper Colorado River SWE is 82% of the historical average peak value.

Snow Water Equivalent: Upper Colorado

Snow water equivalent (inches) time series for the Upper Colorado Region. Snow Water Equivalent levels remained flat through January and most of February. The upper Colorado River Basin is at 97% of normal for this time of year. — Snow water equivalent time series for the Upper Colorado River Basin as of March 17, 2022. Source: USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service–National Water and Climate Center.

Snow Water Equivalent Percent of Median: March 16, 2022

Snow water equivalent levels increased as of 16 March 2022. The upper Colorado River Basin is at 97% of normal for this time of year. The lower Colorado River Basin is at 102% of normal for this time of year. — Snow water equivalent as a percent of the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) 1990–2021 median for the western U.S. as of March 16, 2022. Source: USDA NRCS National Water and Climate Center.

Forecasts and Seasonal Outlooks

April 2022

The Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlook for April shows an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.
The 4-week evaporative demand forecast shows increased Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) across the whole Intermountain West, with especially high evaporative demand for southern Arizona.

April 2022 Temperature Outlook

Climate Predication Center 1-month temperature outlook for April 2022. Odds favor above normal temperatures for the Intermountain West States. — Monthly temperature outlook for April 2022, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

April 2022 Precipitation Outlook

Climate Predication Center 1-month precipitation outlook for April 2022. Odds favor below normal precipitation for the Intermountain West States. — Monthly precipitation outlook for April 2022, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) 4-Week Forecast

he Intermountain West can generally expect increased evaporative demand over the 4 weeks following March 17. The highest rates of evaporative demand will be in southern Arizona. — 4-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) forecast, showing projected evaporative demand for the next 4 weeks. Valid March 17, 2022. Areas shown in orange and red show regions of expected increased evaporation. Source: UC Merced.

3-Month Outlook for April–June 2022

Seasonal forecasts show a hot and dry spring ahead for the Intermountain West:

Lower-than-normal precipitation is more likely than not for Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and New Mexico.
There are equal chances of wet or dry April–June period for southern Arizona. Note that these are usually the driest months of the year for Arizona.
Odds strongly favor increased temperatures through spring and early summer 2022 for the Intermountain West.

Three-Month Temperature Outlook: April–June 2022

Climate Prediction Center 3-month temperature outlook, valid forApril–June 2022. Odds favor above normal temperatures for the Intermountain West states. — Three-month temperature outlook for April–June 2022, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Three-Month Precipitation Outlook: April–June 2022

Climate Prediction Center three-month precipitation outlook for April to June 2022, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. dds favor below normal precipitation for mosttmost of the Intermountain West, with equal chances in southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. — Three-month precipitation outlook for April–June 2022, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Seasonal Drought Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center's 3-month drought outlook shows that drought is expected to continue for the Intermountain West through spring.

U.S. Drought Outlook: March 17–June 30, 2022

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook map of the southwestern United States showing the probability drought conditions persisting, improving, or developing from March 17 to June 30, 2022. Drought is forecast to persist or develop throughout most of the Intermountain West. — U.S. seasonal drought outlook for March 17–June 30, 2022, showing the likelihood that drought will remain, improve, worsen, or develop. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center via Drought.gov.

La Niña to Continue Through Spring and Possibly into Summer

One of the primary drivers of drought across the Southwest this season was a La Niña pattern in the Pacific.
February saw a small resurgence in cool sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific (the primary indication of a La Niña pattern). It is likely that La Niña conditions will persist into early summer.
Spring precipitation is usually lower than normal in the Southwest.
For more information, please check out the NOAA El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) blog.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (°C) for March 10–16, 2022

Map of the Pacific Ocean showing sea surface temperature anomalies (in degrees Celsius) for March 6-13, 2022. A pool of cool water lingers in the central equatorial pacific, consistent with a la Niña pattern. — Sea surface temperature anomalies for the Pacific Ocean for March 10–16, 2022. Blue shading in the equatorial Pacific indicates cooler water temperatures consistent with a La Niña pattern. Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Risk of Wet/Dry Extremes in April–June During La Niña

isk of wet or dry extremes from the historical composite of April through June La Ninas from NOAA ESRL/PSL for the continental US. Extreme dry conditions are likely for much of the Southwest. — April–May–June (AMJ) rainfall pattern when averaged over historical La Niña events, showing the risk of wet and dry extremes in AMJ during La Niña. Source: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory.

Probability of El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral Conditions

Bar graph showing the relative likelihood of El Niño, La Niña or neutral conditions in the Pacific. A continuation of a La Niña pattern is likely until summer. — ENSO forecasts from the International Research Institute, showing the probability of El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions from February to December 2022. Source: International Research Institute.

State-Based Conditions and Impacts

Arizona

Short-term drought increased slightly in February. Moderate (D1) drought increased by 15%, largely in central Arizona, and extreme (D3) drought newly appeared along western Arizona.
Precipitation was below normal for much of the state, with a total statewide precipitation of 0.41 inches for February (0.74 inches below normal). Northeastern Arizona, while still entrenched in long-term extreme (D3) drought, received near-normal precipitation for the month.
Western portions of the Mogollon Rim were close to 150% of median snow water equivalent by the end of February. Eastern portions of the Mogollon Rim to the White Mountains were below 100% of median snow water equivalent, with some less than 50% of median.

Water Year 2022 Precipitation, Averaged by Basin

Colorado

February was a colder than normal month across the state of Colorado, keeping drought impacts mostly frozen.
Precipitation was above normal on the northern Front Range and Urban Corridor, leading to marginal drought improvements in north-central Colorado.
Snowfall was below normal west of the Continental Divide in February, and previously high snowpack values have regressed towards the mean. Major Colorado River Basins are storing between 90%–112% of normal snowpack at over 80% of the way into the snow season.
Normal runoff is not expected for two reasons: low soil moisture/groundwater, and an increased probability of below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures in spring. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center is forecasting 65%–80% of normal runoff this April–July.
Soil moisture remains low on the eastern plains. Winter wheat stands were impacted by dry soils in the fall, and windstorms in December. Farmers are waiting to see how things look at greenup, but due to colder than normal temperatures, greenup will likely be later than normal.

Colorado Basin-Wide Snow Water Equivalent

Major Colorado River Basins are between 90-112% of normal snow water equivalent as of March 16, 2022. — SNOTEL current snow water equivalent (SWE) basin-wide as a percent of the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) 1991–2020 median. Source: USDA NRCS.

Shallow Groundwater Drought Indicator

New Mexico

December through February was exceptionally dry for New Mexico and was the second winter in a row with a statewide average of less than 1.5 inches of precipitation for the season.
Reservoir storage:
- Elephant Butte is at 11% of capacity.
- Caballo is at 7% of capacity.
Eastern New Mexico has been in an extremely dry pattern since July.

Water Year 2022 Percent of Normal Precipitation

Most of southern New Mexico has seen less than 50% of normal precipitation for this water year so far. — Percent of normal precipitation for the water year to date (October 1, 2021–March 16, 2022) across New Mexico. Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center.

Utah

Lackluster January and February snowfall has trended the state’s snowpack back below normal, which currently sits at 88% of median (i.e., normal) statewide despite recent storm activity.
Cool February temperatures limited snowpack loss, while soil moisture remains above average but has trended drier in recent months.
March streamflow forecasts have declined 15%–25% since February 1 forecasts.

Utah Statewide Snow Water Equivalent (Inches)

Time series of SWE for Utah for the 2021-2022 season. At the beginning of January SWE was nearly 130% of normal, but accumulation through January and February was small and SWE has trended to below normal. — Statewide snow water equivalent measurements for Utah. The black line represents current water year conditions, which stands exactly at 100% of normal for this time of year and at the 49th percentile for median peak value. Source: USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service–National Water and Climate Center.

April–July Streamflow Volume Forecasts

Wyoming

Soil moisture continues to be low (10th percentile or less) for parts of the northeast, especially eastern Sheridan, northeastern Johnson, northern Campbell, and northwestern Crook counties.
Precipitation:
- Precipitation has been average for the southeast and central parts of Wyoming, as well as some of the lower elevations in the northwest.
- The northeast, far northwest, and south central areas have missed out on much of the January snows.
Temperatures:
- Bitter cold the last week of February brought average mean temperatures for the month to below average for all but parts of Sublette County and scattered pockets in the northeast.

Average Mean Temperatures: January 31–March 1

30-day average mean temperature as a departure from the 1991-2020 average for Wyoming. Bitter cold the last week of February brought average mean temperatures for the month to below average for all but parts of Sublette County and scattered pockets in the northeast. — 30-day average mean temperature for Wyoming, from January 31 to March 1, 2022. Source: Wyoming State Climate Office.

Precipitation statewide was mostly below average except parts of the Bighorn Basin and a few other isolated areas. The western part of the state, along with the Medicine Bows and Sierra Madre ranges, had the lowest percentages of normal with amounts totaling less than half of normal.
Soil moisture continues to be a concern in the northern parts of the state where drought has continued to linger.
Snowpack at the end of February was below 90 percent of median in all but four of Wyoming’s basins.

Wyoming Basin-Wide Snow Water Equivalent

Basin-wide snow water equivalent across Wyoming as a percent of the median. Snow water equivalent at the end of February was below 90 percent of median in all but four of Wyoming’s basins. — Wyoming basin snow water equivalent (SWE) as a percent of median from the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Valid March 1, 2022. Source: Wyoming Water Resources Data System.

For More Information

More local information is available from the following resources:

Your state climatologist
Your local National Weather Service office
Western Water Assessment: Intermountain West Climate Dashboard

Upcoming Events

March 18, 2022, 2 p.m. MT: Southwest Drought Learning Network Quarterly Meeting
March 28, 2022, 11 a.m. PT: California-Nevada Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar
March 29, 2022, 2 p.m. ET: Soil Moisture Webinar Series — Practical Applications of Soil Moisture Information
March 29, 2022: Spring Runoff Conference, Utah State University
April 5, 2022, 1 p.m. MT: Southwest Drought Briefing: A Focus on Snowpack

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Erin Saffell
Arizona State Climatologist/Arizona State University

Peter Goble
Colorado Climate Center/Colorado State University

Jon Meyer
Utah Climate Center/Utah State University

Tony Bergantino
Water Resources Data System – Wyoming State Climate Office

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the offices of the state climatologist for Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. The purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Intermountain West based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.

Drought Update for the Intermountain West