Drought Update for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

Overview

Current Conditions: Drought conditions have improved considerably across Puerto Rico since early April, with only 4% of the island in Moderate Drought (D1) at this time, compared to 45% on the April 6, 2023 U.S. Drought Monitor issuance. A small area of D1 remains along the northwest coast. In the U.S. Virgin Islands, conditions continue to persist and deteriorate, with Moderate Drought (D1) on Saint John, Severe Drought (D2) on Saint Thomas, and Extreme Drought (D3) on Saint Croix. 

Looking Ahead: Rainfall totals in June and July are usually less than in May, before the late summer wet-season ramp-up begins in August. Precipitation from August to November will be critical for breaking the drought, since these are the wettest 4 months of the year. This will also be influenced by tropical systems, where the NOAA Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2023 calls for near-normal hurricane activity being the most likely outcome. 

Current Conditions

Drought Conditions

• Puerto Rico: Around 30% of Puerto Rico is currently considered dry or in drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, with 4% categorized as Moderate Drought (D1) and 27% categorized as Abnormally Dry (D0). 
• U.S. Virgin Islands: According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, Moderate Drought (D1) is observed across Saint John, Severe Drought (D2) across Saint Thomas, and Extreme Drought (D3) across Saint Croix.  May is usually the wettest month of the year outside of the September–November wet season. That was certainly not the case this year, as both short-term and long-term drought plague St. Croix.  Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix received only 0.34 inch of rain in May, or about 9% of normal. That is the 3rd lowest total in 64 years of data. The year to date total of 5.12 inches through May 31 is the 2nd lowest on record, and less than 50% of normal. Only 1977 was drier.  Hence, the extreme (D3) drought conditions, which by definition occur once every 20 to 50 years. St. Thomas was only marginally better, with a year to date total of 6.36 inches of rain, or the 6th driest such period in 55 years of data. This is also the lowest YTD total through May 31 since 2008. This marks the 6th consecutive May in a row with below-normal rainfall at St. Croix. This sudden dryness in May is a large contributor to St. Croix being in extreme drought now in the month of June for 2 consecutive years.

Sector Impacts

Agricultural Conditions 

• Puerto Rico: In Juana Díaz, though dry conditions are visibly present, there are signs that rain has been falling throughout the region, and some pastures of the area remain green. Moist soil has been found in Coamo Municipality, and there has been more precipitation in the area compared to the first months of 2023. A farmer in the mountainous region of Caguas shared that the soil has been dry since the beginning of the year, crops are suffering damage due to lack of water availability, and the producer is taking advantage of the dry conditions to mechanically remove non-desirable weeds. A farmer in Cidra indicates that there was little to no precipitation until mid-May.  Even though some precipitation was observed through May, the first week of June has been dry and hot, which has affected the health and performance of workers in the field.
• St. Thomas: Farmers on St. Thomas are reporting daily hot, dry weather, which is causing ponds to dry out. Soils are losing their moisture due to the high temperatures and high winds, which have been reported at or above 20 mph daily. Due to concerns over extreme heat of more than 84 degrees daily and humidity at or above 75%, many are doing what they can to plan and prepare irrigation and water efficiency tools to better manage water as part of a longer-term mitigation and conservation plan. Many are considering the use of permaculture and/or tree planting to create shade areas to aid them with soil moisture. Specialty and row crop farmers are working to manage water usage by installing gravity fed irrigation tools and are moving to drought-tolerant crops to keep production up while still conserving water. Many are not planting due to drought and are working on land management practices to aid them during non-drought periods. Livestock farmers are rotating livestock.
• St. John: Row and specialty crop farmers on St. John are reporting that they have little to no rain and they are now in the dry season. The combination of high winds and high temperatures are reducing the moisture in the soil. Farmers are preparing for a long, hot season. Most are currently focusing on micro greens, fruit trees, and quick crops to keep production levels up while rotating them. Most farmers are also preparing land for the wet season where they hope to increase production and make up for lost sales that were impacted during this dry season.
• St. Croix: Farmers have seen sporadic rain; however, these intermittent showers are not penetrating the soil due to evaporation from high winds. Livestock farmers are working to plan for feed shortages later this summer due to a lack of grass during the hotter months. The USVI Department of Agriculture (VIDA) is currently buying and storing hay. Ranchers are looking to drought mitigation strategies to plan for vegetation distress and land management. Poultry farmers are now indicating that egg production has been reduced up to 50% due to the heat. Poultry farmers also report they are concerned that chickens are not eating grain. Farmers who have poultry, including both broilers and/or egg production, have smaller numbers because they have less water and they must collect water in containers or use cistern water. Lastly, livestock farmers are reporting dead animals due to heat and a lack of access to grazing lands. More than 20 horses, livestock, and even wild deer have succumbed due to the heat and lack of water. VIDA on St. Croix reported that they provided more than 1,028,370  gallons of water to farmers in April, and in May they supplied 1,588,170 gallons of water to farmers.
• Assistance for USVI farmers and ranchers: According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, St. Croix has already qualified for a 2023 secretarial drought disaster declaration, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor depiction. Similarly, livestock producers on St. Croix have qualified for direct assistance through the USDM-driven Livestock Forage Program. LFP assistance begins when Severe Drought (D2) lasts 8 weeks or more, with payments tripling when the Extreme Drought (D3) threshold is reached.

Rainfall Trends

Short-term rainfall deficits are observed across northwest Puerto Rico, as well as portions of the eastern interior. Rainfall deficits across these areas are ranging between 2 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of up to 8 inches (Figure 1).  

Soil Moisture Conditions in Puerto Rico

The latest soil moisture data from the Puerto Rico Agricultural Water Management (PRAGWATER) indicates dry soil conditions persisting across portions of eastern Puerto Rico and areas of the southwest and northwest coast (Figures 3 and 4). 

Streamflow and Reservoir Conditions in Puerto Rico 

The real-time 28-day average streamflow from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) river gauge network (Figure 5) indicates streamflows across eastern Puerto Rico, as well as a few spots across northwestern Puerto Rico, are running below normal. Reservoir levels continued to recede with Guajataca under close observation. Groundwater levels at selected observation wells in the south coast of Puerto Rico are near optimal levels, except for Constancia 3 at Ponce, which is being monitored.

Outlooks

Rainfall Outlook

Climatologically speaking, rainfall totals in June and July are usually less than in May, before the late summer ramp-up in August. Precipitation from August to November will be critical for breaking the drought.

It is worth noting that the NOAA Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2023 calls for near-normal hurricane activity being the most likely outcome. On average, the Atlantic Basin sees 14 named storms per year, with 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

For More Information

• National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office – San Juan: Climate and Drought Information
• NWS Drought Information Statements for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Caribbean
• Drought.gov:
  • Puerto Rico page
  • U.S. Virgin Islands page
• Caribbean Drought Bulletins. Caribbean Regional Climate Center, Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados
• U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Caribbean Climate Hub drought and disaster assistance resources for tropical forestry and agriculture

Prepared By

Odalys Martinez
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office – San Juan

Héctor J. Jiménez
Office of Climatology, University of Puerto Rico

Meredith Muth
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Victor Murphy
National Weather Service Southern Region

Christina Chanes
University of Virgin Islands

Eva Holupchinski, Silmarie Crespo Vélez, and Nora Álvarez-Berríos
USDA Caribbean Climate Hub, USFS International Institute of Tropical Forestry

Brad Rippey
USDA Office of the Chief Economist

Timothy Dalrymple
USGS Caribbean - Florida Water Science Center (CFWSC)