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Regional Drought Update Date
September 22, 2023
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Drought Status Update

Southern Plains Drought Status Update

DEWS Regions:
Southern Plains
States:
Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas
Update Status:

NIDIS and its partners will issue further drought status updates as conditions evolve.

Conditions are expected to improve after a summer of intense drought.

Key Points

  • Recent rainfall will ameliorate but not remove drought conditions across the Southern Plains region. 
  • Long-range seasonal outlooks suggest drought is likely to continue through the fall.
  • Larger rainfall totals are expected to return in the winter. A dry summer followed by a wet winter is typical when a strong El Niño pattern is in place.
Current Conditions
U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Southern Plains | September 19, 2023
U.S. Drought Monitor

U.S. Drought Monitor

Data Valid: 09/22/23
Learn More
Main Stats
22%
of Kansas is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought
31%
of New Mexico is in extreme (D3) drought
12%
of Oklahoma is in extreme (D3) drought
41%
of Texas is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought

Current Drought Conditions

U.S. Drought Monitor

  • 76% of the region is in drought (D1 or worse), a 42% increase from 3 months ago.
  • 33% of the region is experiencing Extreme (D3) drought or worse:
    • Kansas—22% of the state
    • New Mexico—31%
    • Oklahoma—12%
    • Texas—41%
  • 10% of the region is experiencing Exceptional (D4) drought.
  • Louisiana, while not in the Southern Plains DEWS region, has seen increasing drought. 99.9% of the state is in Moderate (D1) drought or worse, and 90% of the state in Extreme (D3) drought or worse.
  • Extreme (D3) drought conditions have been in place in this region since August 2019.
  • Moderate (D1) or worse drought has been in the region since June 2016.

September Rainfall is Improving Drought in Parts of Texas

  • A series of storms from the 11th through the 17th delivered over two inches of rain to many parts of western and central Texas, western Kansas, and the Oklahoma Panhandle.
  • Eastern and Coastal Texas remain very dry.

30-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation: September 8 vs. September 18

Over the last 30 days to September 18, 2023, much of the region has experienced below-normal precipitation.

Over the last 30 days to September 18, 2023, parts of western and central Texas, western Kansas, and the Oklahoma Panhandle experienced near- to above-normal precipitation.
Percent of normal precipitation (%) for the 30 days leading up to September 8 (top) and September 18 (bottom), compared to the historical average (1991–2020) for the same 30 days. Valid through September 18, 2023. Source: UC Merced / GridMET. Map from Drought.gov.

Recent Temperature Conditions 

  • Texas experienced its second highest August mean temperature and the 8th lowest August precipitation total on record. This makes August 2023 both the warmest and driest month on record in Texas since 2011. 
  • Over the last 30 days, temperatures across Texas and Louisiana were 4 to 8 ºF above average—and 3 ºF to 6 ºF above average for parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.
  • On average, statewide, Texas usually receives 2.31 inches of rain in August and 2.93 inches of rain in September. This year the statewide average rainfall for August was only 0.96 inches, but rainfall was tracking near-normal through the first two-thirds of September.
  • Persistently very high temperatures coupled with little to no rainfall over the summer has led to worsening drought conditions across central and southern Texas. 

30-Day Departure from Normal Temperature Through September 18

For the 30 days leading up to September 18, temperatures across Texas and Louisiana were 4 to 8 ºF above average. And 3 ºF to 6 ºF above average for parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.
Departure from average maximum daily temperature (°F) for the past 30 days compared to the historical average (1991–2020) for the same 30 days. Valid through September 18, 2023. Source: UC Merced / GridMET. Map from Drought.gov.

Short-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index: September 12, 2023 

According to a blend of short-term drought indicators, moderate to extreme drought conditions are present across much of Texas, New Mexico, southern and eastern Oklahoma, and eastern Kansas.
The Short-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) looks at current drought conditions across the U.S. by integrating several key short-term (looking back up to 90 days) drought indices on precipitation and moisture into one objective, computer-generated map. Valid September 12, 2023. Red/orange hues indicate drier conditions, while green/blue hues indicate wetter conditions. Source: UC Merced, Climate Engine. Map from Drought.gov.

Observed Drought Impacts

Texas Reservoir Storage

Water storage has decreased across the state, and reservoirs are now 66.6% full. This is more than 14% below the median value for this time of year, and 3.8% lower than at this time last year. 

Texas Monitored Water Supply Reservoir Storage

As of September 20, monitored water supply reservoirs in Texas are 66.6% full. Reservoirs in the eastern part of Texas are full or nearly so, while most reservoirs in western Texas are less than half full.
Percent full for monitored water supply reservoirs in Texas, as of September 20, 2023. Source: Texas Water Development Board.

Mississippi River

The Mississippi River at St. Louis is lower than this time last year. September through November marks the climatological low point in Mississippi River flow annual flow. 

Mississippi River Levels at St. Louis

The Mississippi River at St. Louis is lower than at this time last year.
Time series showing Mississippi River levels (gage height, in feet) at St. Louis, Missouri, from September 19, 2022 through September 19, 2023. The current year (thick blue/orange line) is compared to the prior year (thin blue line). Source: U.S. Geological Survey.

Fire Conditions

  • After months of very hot, dry conditions, fuels remain dry, but cooler temperatures and recent rains in late August and early September did provide some help. In many regions, the Energy Release Component has improved from near-record to record values, though it is still near to above normal for the time of year across much of the region. With warm conditions in the forecast, areas that don’t receive rain over the next 1–2 weeks will likely see ERC values rise again. 
  • Wildland fire potential is expected to return to near-normal in October, per the National Interagency Coordination Center. Slightly above-normal wildfire activity may continue in some of the drier pockets around the region over the next few weeks.

October 2023 Wildland Fire Potential Outlook

The Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook shows a normal wildland fire potential in the Southern Plains in October.
Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for October 2023 (issued September 1, 2023). Above-normal significant wildland fire potential (red) indicates a greater than usual likelihood that significant wildland fires will occur. Source: National Interagency Fire Center Predictive Services.

Forecasts and Outlooks: When Will This Drought End?

Long-range seasonal outlooks suggest drought is likely to continue through the fall. Above-normal rainfall could return in the winter for portions of the region. 

7-Day Precipitation Forecast: September 22–29

Over the next 7 days, 1.5 to 4 inches of rain is expected over eastern Oklahoma, with 0.5 to 2 inches expected over northeastern and central Texas within the forecast period.
7-day quantitative precipitation forecast, showing forecast precipitation (inches) for September 22–29, 2023. Source: National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

6–10 Day Precipitation Outlook: September 27–October 1

For September 27–October 1, odds slightly favor above-normal precipitation across Kansas and western and central Oklahoma, with near-normal precipitation elsewhere.
6–10 day precipitation outlook for September 27–October 1, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal precipitation. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Forecasts and Seasonal Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlook for October: 

  • Temperature: There are increased odds of above-normal temperatures in October for most of the Southern Plains, except for Kansas, where the odds are equal.
  • Precipitation: The outlook shows an increased chance of above-normal precipitation for most of the Southern Plains in October. The chances for a wet month drop off near the Gulf Coast.

October 2023 Temperature Outlook

For October 2023, odds favor above-normal temperatures across Texas, southern and central Oklahoma, and southern and central New Mexico.
Monthly temperature outlook for October 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal or below-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

October 2023 Precipitation Outlook 

For October 2023, odds favor above-normal precipitation across most of the Southern Plains, except along the Gulf Coast of Texas.
Monthly precipitation outlook for October 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal or below-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

3-Month Outlook for October–December 2023

  • The seasonal temperature outlook for October–December 2023 shows a warmer season ahead for southern Texas. There is a near-equal chance of above- or below-normal temperatures for the rest of the region.
  • The seasonal precipitation outlook for October–December 2023 calls for slightly increased odds for a wetter-than-normal season. This is typical for El Niño patterns in late fall and early winter.

October–December 2023 Temperature Outlook

For October to December 2023, odds slightly favor above-normal temperatures across southern and central Texas and most of New Mexico. In the rest of the Southern Plains, there are equal chances for above- or below-normal temperatures.
Three-month temperature outlook for October–December 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal or below-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

October–December 2023 Precipitation Outlook 

From October to December 2023, odds slightly favor above-normal precipitation across Texas, eastern New Mexico, and Oklahoma, with equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation in most of Kansas and western New Mexico.
Three-month precipitation outlook for October–December 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal or below-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Seasonal Drought Outlook for October–December 2023

According to the latest U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, drought across the Southern Plains is forecast to remain but improve through the end of the year. 

Drought is forecast to improve for much of the Southern Plains from October to December 2023.
U.S. seasonal (3-month) drought outlook, predicting where drought is likely to persist, improve, develop, or be removed from September 121 to December 31, 2023. Issued September 21, 2023. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Long-Range Climate Guidance: Fall & Winter 2023

  • El Niño conditions are present in the central Pacific and are anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
  • Each El Niño has impacted the Southern Plains weather differently, but on average, when a strong El Niño pattern is in place, the Southern Plains experiences a dry summer followed by a wet winter.
  • El Niño was one factor in the extended drought conditions this summer. Past events indicate increased rainfall can be expected in late fall and early winter this year.

Risk of Precipitation Extremes During El Niño Years: July–September vs. October–December

Map of the United States showing the percent increase in risk of extreme wet weather for July through September. There is not an increased risk of wet extremes during the July–September period in years with an El Nino pattern.

Map of the United States showing the percent increase in risk of extreme wet weather for October through December. n years when an El Niño pattern was present in the Pacific there is an increased chance of extreme wet weather for the southern states in late fall and early winter.
Risk of extreme precipitation in the U.S. related to El Niño for July– September (top) and October–December (bottom). In years when an El Niño pattern was present in the Pacific, there is an increased chance of extreme wet weather for the southern states in late fall and early winter.  
Source: NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory.

State-Based Conditions and Impacts 

Kansas

  • Early harvest is ongoing with rapid crop drying and maturing, making yields a great concern.
  • Water supply demand is increasing in the east with water use restrictions in place in some Flint Hills communities.
  • Reservoirs in eastern and central Kansas never rebounded this spring and fall. They are going into the dry season at below normal capacity. 

30-Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

For the 30 days leading up to September 11, sites through Kansas have seen precipitation deficits.
30-day departures from normal precipitation as of 5 pm CDT on September 11, 2023 at the Kansas Mesonet sites. Only isolated areas of north-central and southwest have observed at/above normal moisture the last month. Source: Kansas Mesonet.

Oklahoma

  • Flash drought is a concern in Oklahoma for the third time in the last three years with rapid intensification occurring across the southwestern half of the state. The dry period stretches out past 60 days. 
  • In addition to the short-term areas of flash drought, long-term drought continues to plague parts of north central and southwest Oklahoma, with deficits in those areas stretching back to late summer 2021. 
  • Dry soils are of particular concern to Oklahoma’s winter wheat growers this time of year as they consider planting this year’s crop for grazing by livestock later this winter. The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service shows 72% of Oklahoma topsoil with short to very-short moisture conditions for the week ending Sept. 17, 2023. 

60-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation

For July 22 to September 19, precipitation has been below normal across much of Oklahoma, with the exception of parts of northern Oklahoma.
60-day percent of normal rainfall accumulation (%) across Oklahoma for July 22–September 19, 2023. Source: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Texas 

  • Over the past month, beneficial rainfall amounts of 2–4 inches, with localized amounts of 5+ inches, fell across significant portions of the state. This includes south Texas (much of which came with Tropical Storm Harold on August 22), southeast Texas, the Rio Grande Plains, the Edwards Plateau and northern Hill Country, and the central and southern Panhandle. 
  • Lower rainfall amounts of mainly 0.5–2 inches fell across the western Trans-Pecos, the San Antonio area and southern Hill Country east into the inland Coastal Plains, and much of northeast Texas. Amounts lower than 0.5 inches in the past month were observed near the Red River north of Dallas and the Rio Grande northwest of the Big Bend. 
  • In north-central Texas, Belton Reservoir and Stillhouse Hollow Reservoir are both below 60% capacity for the first time since they were filled in the 1960s and 1970s.

Southern Plains Drought in the News

For More Information

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee,
NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System; CIRES/CU Boulder

Adam Lang and Eleanor Hasenbeck
NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, Communications; CIRES/CU Boulder

Gary McManus
Oklahoma State Climatologist, Oklahoma Mesonet, Oklahoma Climatological Survey

Matt Sittel
Kansas Assistant State Climatologist, Kansas State University

John Nielsen-Gammon
Texas State Climatologist, Texas State Climate Office, Texas A&M University
Southern Regional Climate Center

William (BJ) Baule and Alison Tarter
Texas State Climate Office, Texas A&M University
Southern Regional Climate Center

Keith White and Victor Murphy
National Weather Service

Special Thanks

 

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the offices of the state climatologist for Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Kansas. The purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southern Plains based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought updates as conditions evolve.

Partner(s)
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

NOAA NWS Logo

National Weather Service (NWS)

Kansas State Research and Extension logo

Kansas Office of the State Climatologist

Oklahoma Climatological Survey logo

Oklahoma Climatological Survey

Oklahoma Mesonet logo

Oklahoma Mesonet

Office of the Texas State Climatologist logo

Office of the Texas State Climatologist

Southern Regional Climate Center logo

Southern Regional Climate Center

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