Pacific Northwest DEWS Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar: October 28, 2024

Webinar Introduction

Speaker: Jason Gerlich | Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental ScNOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

• This bi-monthly webinar is co-hosted by NIDIS, the USDA Northwest Climate Hub, and the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI).
• Register  for the Oregon-Washington Water Year 2024 Recap & 2025 Outlook Meeting.
• Register for the 2024 Idaho Fall Water Supply Meeting.
• Participate in the Water Year Impacts Survey for the Pacific Northwest

Climate Recap and Current Conditions

Speaker: Guillaume Mauger | Office of the Washington State Climatologist

• Over the last 30 days, Washington saw temperatures return to normal, but with above-normal conditions across Oregon and Idaho. 
• Precipitation continues to be sparse across the region with the exception of northwestern Washington. 
• The region had an active wildfire season, particularly in Oregon and Idaho.
• Streamflows in October started much below normal, but were buffered by recent precipitation across the region. 
• Drought conditions have slowly improved over the past month, but the rainy season is off to a slow start. 

Seasonal Conditions & Climate Outlook

Speaker: Johnna Infanti | National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center

• La Niña will most likely be a weak, short duration event in winter 2024–2025. The coverage and degree of typical La Niña impacts is highly uncertain. 
• Winter conditions are anticipated to be quite different from the 2023–2024 winter, when there was a strong El Niño established.
• Above-normal temperatures are favored for northern Alaska with colder-than-normal conditions most likely from the Pacific Northwest and for southern Alaska. 
• Drier-than-normal conditions are favored across the southern tier of the U.S. with an enhanced likelihood of drought development by the end of the winter months. Wetter-than-normal conditions are favored for much of the Northwest with some regions of drought removal or improvement aligning with above-normal precipitation probabilities.

National Water Model Guidance 

Speaker: Robin Fox | National Weather Service Spokane

• The National Water Prediction Service National Water Model has been updated for 2024, making real-time data more accessible to users. Users can find information on river stage,  river flood outlooks, current hazards, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and more. New this month specifically is flood inundation mapping for the Pacific Northwest. 
• Visit the website at water.noaa.gov.
• Additional resources:
  • Fact sheet
  • Story Map overview
  • User Guide

Embedding Molecular Biology in Ecosystem Research (EMBER) 

Speaker: Tara Hudiburg | University of Idaho

• One initiative of EMBER is to better understand and determine the thresholds for forest recovery post-stressor—like fire or persistent drought. 
• Another key research priority is to predict how stress impacts the forest carbon sink.
• The project seeks to link lab-generated molecular and physiological understanding to observed ecosystem processes.
• EMBER works to train the next generation to transcend disciplines for use-inspired solutions to climate change.
• The team also works to develop an effective science-communication framework to inform forest policy.  

Q&A and Conclusion 

Speaker: Holly Prenderville | USDA Northwest Climate Hub