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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: November 19, 2024

Event Date
November 19, 2024
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
ET
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The Atlantic hurricane season is finally winding down in the Southeast. November was warmer than normal across much of the region, with some locations on track to record one of their warmest Novembers on record. While rain along the Atlantic coast brought to an end some exceptionally long and record-breaking dry streaks, drought continued to expand and intensify from the northern Gulf Coast through the interior and northern portions of the region. Extreme Drought (D3) emerged across parts of Alabama and Tennessee. Streamflows are mostly below normal in much of Alabama, Tennessee and Mississippi, and near to or above normal in the rest of the region.

Below-normal temperatures are expected to move into the region over the next two weeks, except across the Florida Peninsula. There is a slight leaning to above-normal precipitation during this time. Flooding is not uncommon in the Southeast during the winter, and flood potential is expected to be close to normal for this time of year. For most of the Southeast region, odds lean toward below-average precipitation (rainfall + snow) and above-average temperatures this winter due to a potential arrival of a weak La Niña. 

Check out the webinar recording to hear more on Southeast climate conditions and a special presentation, "El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Winter Outlook for the Southeast,” from Michelle L'Heureux at the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • This webinar contains a special presentation, "El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Winter Outlook for the Southeast,” from Michelle L'Heureux at the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.

 

Timestamp
1:05

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperatures were well-above average across much of the region, and many locations are on track to record one of their warmest Novembers on record. Temperatures were near to slightly above average across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
  • Precipitation was near to below average across much of the region, except across eastern portions of Georgia and South Carolina, where some locations recorded over a foot of rain. Precipitation in the Caribbean has been 2–3 times more than average. Several record to near record-breaking dry streaks came to an end.
  • Drought expanded and intensified from the northern Gulf Coast through the interior and northern portions of the region. Extreme Drought (D3) emerged across parts of Alabama and Tennessee. Abnormal Dryness (D0) expanded across the Carolinas and northern Florida, but was eliminated across Puerto Rico.
  • The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is running above average in terms of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy. Monitor tropical storms through your local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office and the National Hurricane Center.
  • Below-normal temperatures are expected to move into the region over the next two weeks, except across the Florida Peninsula. There is a slight leaning to above-normal precipitation during this time.
  • For more information, contact Chris Fuhrmann.
  • Additional regional climate and drought information:

 

Timestamp
7:35

Water Resources Outlook

Speaker: Todd Hamill, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • The Southeast has experienced a lot of ‘feast or famine’ in terms of precipitation across the region this past tropical season. While Helene and Milton brought significant rain in some areas, there were also long periods of dry weather.
  • Currently, the 28-day U.S. Geological Survey  streamflows are mostly below normal in Alabama and Mississippi. Streamflows are near to above normal in the rest of the Southeast River Forecast Center area.
  • Looking ahead. The Southeast typically gets flooding during the winter, but it is not usually extensive. Flooding is still possible, but not over and above what is normal for this time of year.
  • Areas of the Southeast with above-normal streamflows are still vulnerable to flooding. However, with below-normal precipitation predicted for the winter, a near-normal amount of flooding is forecast.   
  • In areas with below-normal streamflows currently, we are continuing to hold on to a normal chance of flooding going into the winter season.
  • Overall, through the upcoming 3-month period, the potential for flooding is near normal. 
  • In Florida, below-normal rainfall is expected because it is the dry season.
  • Additional streamflow and flood information is available from the National Weather Service River Forecast Centers:
  • Southeast River Forecast Center
  • Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center
  • Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center
  • Ohio River Forecast Center
  • For more information, contact Todd Hamill.

 

Timestamp
15:47

Agriculture Impacts and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia

  • Dry conditions have helped producers finish their harvest in some areas, but they also made the ground too hard to harvest peanuts until the rain arrived last week.
  • Most livestock producers are feeding hay because of dry pastures.
  • Chill hour accumulation so far is below normal due to warmer-than-normal temperatures.
  • Most of the region has not yet experienced a freeze other than the higher elevations and most northern locations.
  • The next most likely chance of a frost in the Southeast is late November, but this is subject to change.
  • For more information, contact Pam Knox.
  • Explore additional information on reporting agricultural conditions. 
  • Sign up to receive updates from the Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast: Blog.

 

Timestamp
23:10

Special Presentation: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Update and What Might We Expect This Winter for the Southeast?

Speaker: Michelle L'Heureux, National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center

  • If La Niña forms, it would likely be on the weaker side of events. A weaker event means weaker “pushing” onto the atmosphere, which can lead to somewhat higher chances of ‘busts’ or unexpected outcomes.  
  • If La Niña forms, it is expected to be strongest during the winter (in Niño-3.4 region sea surface temperatures), but some impacts over the United States may lag into the spring season (February–May).
  • For most of the Southeast region, odds lean toward below-average precipitation (rainfall + snow). Above-average temperatures are also favored. 
  • Expected seasonal impacts are always probabilistic (i.e., they show the “percent chance of” certain outcomes occurring) and never guaranteed. This is an important message to convey to users of these products.  
  • For more information, contact Michelle L'Heureux.
  • For more information on ENSO:

 

Timestamp
42:10

Q&A and Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

  • Register for upcoming webinars!
    • December 2024: No webinar
    • January 28, 2025: A 2024 year in review

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems

 
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National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).

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