Drought Persists Through Winter
March Likely to Bring a Mix of Drought Improvement and Persistence Across Midwest
Key Points
- Drought conditions showed little change over the winter season, and according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 43% of the Midwest is in Moderate to Severe Drought (D1-D2), with an additional 25% Abnormally Dry (D0).
- Winter precipitation, including snowfall, was below normal across a majority of the region, most notably in Minnesota, Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois.
- Odds favor above-normal precipitation in March across eastern portions of the Midwest, with the highest probabilities over Michigan. Therefore, drought conditions are likely to improve or be removed across portions of Michigan, northern Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin.
- Drought is expected to persist across Minnesota, Iowa, northern Wisconsin, and western Missouri. Below-normal winter precipitation, low streamflows, and a lack of subsoil moisture in these areas are raising concerns about adequate moisture moving into spring and the upcoming growing season.
This update is based on data available as of Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 9:00 a.m. CT. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving.
The U.S. Drought Monitor depicts the location and intensity of drought across the country. The map uses 5 classifications: Abnormally Dry (D0), showing areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought, and four levels of drought (D1–D4).
The U.S. Drought Monitor is a joint effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and National Drought Mitigation Center.
A drought index combines multiple drought indicators (e.g., precipitation, temperature, soil moisture) to depict drought conditions. For some products, like the U.S. Drought Monitor, authors combine their analysis of drought indicators with input from local observers. Other drought indices, like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), use an objective calculation to describe the severity, location, timing, and/or duration of drought.
Learn MorePeriods of drought can lead to inadequate water supply, threatening the health, safety, and welfare of communities. Streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and snowpack data are key to monitoring and forecasting water supply.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn MoreU.S. Drought Monitor Categories
D0 - Abnormally Dry
Abnormally Dry (D0) indicates a region that is going into or coming out of drought. View typical impacts by state.
D1 - Moderate Drought
Moderate Drought (D1) is the first of four drought categories (D1–D4), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. View typical impacts by state.
D2 - Severe Drought
Severe Drought (D2) is the second of four drought categories (D1–D4), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. View typical impacts by state.
D3 - Extreme Drought
Extreme Drought (D3) is the third of four drought categories (D1–D4), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. View typical impacts by state.
D4 - Exceptional Drought
Exceptional Drought (D4) is the most intense drought category, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. View typical impacts by state.
Total Area in Drought (D1–D4)
Percent area of the Midwest that is currently in drought (D1–D4), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
The U.S. Drought Monitor depicts the location and intensity of drought across the country. The map uses 5 classifications: Abnormally Dry (D0), showing areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought, and four levels of drought (D1–D4).
The U.S. Drought Monitor is a joint effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and National Drought Mitigation Center.
The U.S. Drought Monitor is released every Thursday morning, with data valid through the previous Tuesday at 7 a.m. ET.
A drought index combines multiple drought indicators (e.g., precipitation, temperature, soil moisture) to depict drought conditions. For some products, like the U.S. Drought Monitor, authors combine their analysis of drought indicators with input from local observers. Other drought indices, like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), use an objective calculation to describe the severity, location, timing, and/or duration of drought.
Learn MorePeriods of drought can lead to inadequate water supply, threatening the health, safety, and welfare of communities. Streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and snowpack data are key to monitoring and forecasting water supply.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn MoreCurrent Conditions and Impacts for the Midwest
- According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 43% of the Midwest is in Moderate to Severe Drought (D1-D2), with an additional 25% Abnormally Dry (D0).
- Portions of Michigan, northern Minnesota, and northwest Iowa are in Severe Drought (D2), which persisted over the winter season. A small area of Severe Drought (D2) also emerged in western Illinois/northeast Missouri on this week’s U.S. Drought Monitor.
- Conditions showed little change over the winter season for the Upper Midwest, which is not unusual for this time of year since the ground is typically frozen and total precipitation is relatively low. However, winter precipitation (December–February) was below normal across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and northern Illinois.
- Winter snowfall was below normal for many places, particularly across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, northern Illinois/Indiana, and portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Below-normal snowfall in the Upper Midwest during winter can set the stage for worsening drought conditions in the spring.
- Water levels on each of the Great Lakes, except for Lake Erie, are currently below long-term monthly averages due to drought conditions in the Upper Midwest, which accelerated the decline of water levels.
- Streamflow and soil moisture (particularly subsoil moisture) are below normal in some areas, including Missouri, Illinois, northern Indiana, and Lower Michigan. The stretch of the Mississippi River around St. Louis is setting daily low records currently. The Lower Mississippi River is near normal for this time of year due to ample flows out of the Ohio River Basin.
- In Wisconsin, the combination of dry, windy conditions and minimal snow cover created the perfect storm for wildfires. In January, 74 wildfires ignited, scorching 264 acres—an unusually high number for mid-winter in Wisconsin.
Winter Precipitation Was Below Normal Across Majority of Midwest
Below-Normal Winter Snowfall Across the Upper Midwest
Outlooks and Potential Impacts in the Midwest
- Moving into the spring season, outlooks for March 2025 call for greater chances for above-normal temperatures across much of the Midwest.
- Precipitation is expected to be above normal across eastern portions of the region, with the highest probabilities over Michigan. There are equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation across much of Minnesota, western Iowa, and western Missouri in March.
- As a result of this outlook, drought conditions are likely to improve or be removed across portions of Michigan, northern Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin. However, drought is expected to persist across Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and western Missouri.
- With drought expected to persist across these areas, the lack of seasonal snowfall and subsoil moisture is raising concerns in these areas about adequate moisture moving into the spring and upcoming growing season.
- The risk for spring wildfire is also elevated in portions of the Upper Midwest, including northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
Odds Favor Above-Normal Precipitation over Great Lakes in March
March Likely to Bring a Mix of Drought Improvement and Persistence Across Midwest
Resources
- More local information is available from the following resources:
- To report or view local drought impact information:
- Register for the next North Central U.S. Climate and Drought Summary & Outlook Webinar on Thursday, March 20 at 1 p.m. Central, which will provide updated information about conditions, impacts, and outlooks.
- Access the 2025 Spring Flood Outlook for the Greater Mississippi River Basin.
Prepared By
Molly Woloszyn
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder / NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Doug Kluck
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
Dennis Todey
U.S. Department of Agriculture Midwest Climate Hub
Jeff Boyne & Andrea Thielke
NOAA National Weather Service Central Region
Jim Noel & Molly Peters
NOAA National Weather Service Ohio and North Central River Forecast Centers
Anna Wolverton
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Mississippi Valley Division / NOAA National Weather Service
Melissa Widhalm
Midwestern Regional Climate Center / Purdue University
Denise Gutzmer
National Drought Mitigation Center
A special thank you to the state climate offices and National Weather Service offices in the Midwest region for providing local information on drought conditions and impacts included in the North Central webinar and in this Drought Status Update.
This Drought Status Update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the National Drought Mitigation Center to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Midwest region based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future Drought Status Updates as conditions evolve.
