Drought Status Update for the Midwest U.S.

Key Points

• According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought is currently impacting 40% of the Midwest region, primarily across the Upper Midwest and south into Iowa and Missouri (Figure 1). 
• 78% of Wisconsin is experiencing drought, with a small portion of northern Wisconsin in the highest level of drought—exceptional drought (D4). This is the first time that D4 drought has impacted Wisconsin since the inception of the Drought Monitor in 2000.
• The region has been experiencing a significant heat wave over the last week, with persistent heat index values over 100°F. Many areas have been without rainfall as well (Figure 2), resulting in the persistence of drought conditions and worsening of drought conditions in Minnesota and Wisconsin (Figure 3).
• Negative drought impacts remain prevalent across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Missouri. Impacts include limited soil moisture for vegetation and potential crop yield reduction, poor pasture conditions forcing supplementary feeding for livestock, low surface water on streams and ponds/lakes, above-normal wildfire activity in Wisconsin, and the implementation of water conservation measures.
• The Upper Mississippi River levels remain very low, with a majority of the river below low flow thresholds. The Ohio River at Cairo, IL dropped almost ten feet since August 16 (Figure 4). Lower stages are expected to continue downstream to the Lower Mississippi River throughout the next week. Restrictions remain in place for navigation to reduce loads, and up to 17 dredges are operating along the entire length of the Mississippi River in order to maintain the 9-foot navigation channel.
• The forecasts and outlooks through early- to mid-September show the persistence of hot and dry weather will likely continue. Forecasts call for some rainfall over August 25–September 1 in portions of the Midwest, but widespread significant rainfall is limited (Figure 5). 
• There will be a brief reprieve from the heat towards the end of August, but the hot conditions are forecast to return in the August 31–September 6 time frame (Figure 6). Dry conditions are also likely to persist through early September (Figure 7).
• Potential impacts of the continued hot and dry conditions include the continuation of current impacts listed above, insufficient moisture for soybeans, which are in a critical growth stage right now, and increased fire risk.
• The Ohio River is forecast to have below-normal flows in September, and low stages are expected to persist throughout the length of the Mississippi River. These low flows and stages will likely impact industry and navigation.