Drought Status Update for the Southeast

Key Points

• According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought is currently impacting slightly over 50%  of the Southeast region, with the most intense drought found in the western portions of the region in Tennessee, Alabama, northwest Georgia, and the Panhandle of Florida. 95% of Alabama is currently in drought, with 29% in Extreme Drought (D3). 92% of Tennessee is currently in drought, with 41% in Extreme Drought (D3) . Drought conditions have also worsened in Virginia and the Carolinas, primarily in the Mountain regions but are now expanding over the Piedmont and starting to appear along the coast.  Florida’s long-term drought along the western peninsula continues to persist.
• Drought conditions are quickly expanding, with all states experiencing at least a 2-class degradation in U.S. Drought Monitor classification over the past month (Figure 1) and many locations experiencing some of the driest falls on record (Figure 2). In southern Tennessee, for example, Extreme Drought (D3) increased by 33% last week alone. These rapid-onset (“flash”) fall droughts in the Southeast resemble what was observed in 2016, 2019, and 2022. 
• Despite isolated precipitation events and Hurricane Ophelia in September, this steady dryness has led to a notable loss of soil moisture (Figure 3), which is impacting crop yields, pond levels, winter planting, forage quantity and quality, and resulting in supplemental livestock feeding. USDA has announced  ‘Drought Disaster Declarations’ for many counties in Northern Alabama. Fire risk in November continues to increase (Figure 4) during this fall wildfire season with fire danger elevated and burn bans in effect for many locations. There are many areas experiencing declining levels of streamflows (Figure 5) and reservoirs, resulting in some voluntary water restrictions. 
• While drought is anticipated to expand in November, especially in northern Georgia and western North Carolina (Figure 6), near-term forecasts indicate that some relief may be on the way this weekend,  especially to Tennessee and northern Mississippi (Figure 7). While November is typically the driest month of the year for much of the Southeast, seasonal models indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal precipitation in much of the region (Figure 8), this winter due to an expected strong El Niño pattern that typically brings increased winter precipitation to the Southeast. (Figure 9). Learn more about what this El Niño means during this November 28 webinar.
• Potential near-term impacts of persistent drought include the continuation of low water levels on major rivers and tributaries. However, river levels typically rebound in the winter due to seasonal and climatological trends.