Drought Status Update for the Midwest

Current Conditions for the Midwest

• According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, only 4% of the Midwest region is in drought (Moderate to Severe Drought [D1–D2]), with an additional 7% considered Abnormally Dry (D0). 
• Spring and early summer rainfall helped completely alleviate drought concerns across the Midwest; the region was drought free on the June 11 U.S. Drought Monitor. However, the reprieve was short-lived as extreme heat and below-normal rainfall drove the expansion of drought in Ohio and Kentucky over the last 6 weeks (Figure 1). 
• Portions of the Ohio River Basin (Ohio, Kentucky) have received only 25%–75% of normal precipitation since June 11 (Figure 2). On the other hand, much of Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Michigan, received above-normal precipitation since mid-June.
• The 13-week U.S. Drought Monitor change map shows the extreme contrast between western portions of the region (improvement) versus the eastern portions of the region (degradation) since late April (Figure 3). 

Figure 1: 6-Week U.S. Drought Monitor Change Map (Since June 11, 2024)

Key Takeaway: In just 6 weeks, drought worsened by one to three categories on the U.S. Drought Monitor in portions of Ohio and Kentucky.

Figure 2: Accumulated Precipitation – Percent of Normal (June 11–July 24, 2024)

Key Takeaway: Portions of the Ohio River Basin received only 25%-75% of normal precipitation since June 11. Combined with hot temperatures, these conditions drove drought expansion in these areas.

Figure 3: 13-Week U.S. Drought Monitor Change Map (Since April 23, 2024)

Key Takeaway: Drought conditions significantly improved in western portions of the region (Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Upper Michigan) over the last three months according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. However, drought worsened across portions of Ohio and Kentucky by one to three categories during this time frame.

Midwest Drought Impacts

• For the areas in drought in Ohio and Kentucky, drought impacts emerged. 
  • Soil moisture is below normal across both states (Figure 4), and crops are stressed to the point where there may be considerable yield loss. 
  • In Ohio, pasture conditions are very poor and a big concern across southeast Ohio. 
  • In both states, vegetation, including young trees, yards, and bushes are showing signs of stress.
• Streamflow is below to much-below normal across Ohio and Kentucky and portions of Indiana as well. Streamflow across the northern portions of the region is above to much-above normal (Figure 5).
• The last two years (2022, 2023) saw significant low-flow issues on the Lower Mississippi River in late summer through early fall. While the flows from the Ohio River Basin are a major contributor to the Lower Mississippi River, the above-normal flows from the Upper Mississippi River and Missouri River are enough to offset the lower flows from the Ohio River and alleviate low water level concerns on the Lower Mississippi River through at least the middle of August.

Figure 4: 0–100 cm Soil Moisture Percentiles (as of July 24, 2024)

Key Takeaway: Soil moisture is below normal across portions of the Ohio River Basin, including portions of Kentucky, Ohio, and Indiana. 

Figure 5: 28-Day Average Streamflow Conditions (Valid July 24, 2024)

Key Takeaway: Average streamflow over the last 28 days was below-normal in areas across Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana. The Upper Midwest has above-normal streamflow.

Report your local drought impacts through a Condition Monitoring Observer Report:

Report Impacts

Outlooks and Potential Impacts

• The 8–14 day outlook (valid for August 1–7) shows above-normal temperatures are very likely across the entire Midwest region (Figure 6), where heat index values are expected to reach above 100°F in many areas. Western portions of the region are expected to have below-normal precipitation, while other areas have increased chances for near-normal precipitation (Figure 7). 
• For the month of August, above-normal temperatures are likely to continue, and for much of the region, precipitation has equal chances of being above-, below-, or near normal (Figure 8). There is an increased chance for above-normal precipitation across Kentucky.
• Outlooks call for above-normal temperatures for the remainder of summer in the Midwest.  A pattern change for rainfall is forecast, with below-normal rainfall expected in parts of the Missouri and Upper Mississippi Basins, and near- to above-normal rainfall anticipated in parts of the Ohio to Tennessee Valley Basins.
• Because of expected rainfall, the seasonal drought outlook shows drought in Ohio and Kentucky is likely to improve or be removed completely by the end of October. Drought is not expected to develop elsewhere in the Midwest through the end of October (Figure 9).
• Some areas across the Midwest have significant long-term precipitation deficits, and others just came out of drought (Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Minnesota, and Wisconsin). If these areas receive below-normal precipitation in the coming months, they may be at risk for worsening drought conditions due to the predicted above-normal temperatures.
• Some low water issues on the Mississippi River are typical each fall (between September and December), as this is the driest season for much of the Mississippi Basin. However, extremely low flows are unlikely at this time. 

Figure 6: 8–14 Day Temperature Outlook (August 1–7, 2024)

Key Takeaway: Above-normal temperatures are very likely across the Midwest region from August 1–7.

Figure 7: 8–14 Day Precipitation Outlook (August 1–7, 2024)

Key Takeaway: Western areas of the Midwest have increased chances for below-normal precipitation from August 1–7, and other areas are expected to receive near-normal precipitation.

Figure 8: August 2024 Precipitation Outlook

Key Takeaway: A majority of the region has equal chances for above-, below-, or near-normal precipitation during August 2024. There is an increased chance for above-normal precipitation across Kentucky.

Figure 9: Seasonal Drought Outlook for July 18–October 31, 2024

Key Takeaway: Drought will likely improve or be removed in areas of Ohio and Kentucky between July 18–October 31 and is not expected to develop elsewhere in the Midwest.

Resources

For More Information

• More local information is available from the following resources:
  • Your state climatologist
  • Your state page on Drought.gov
  • National Weather Service Drought Information Statements
• To report or view local drought impact information:
  • NDMC’s Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) 
  • CoCoRaHS Condition Monitoring Reports 
• Register for the North Central U.S. Climate and Drought Summary & Outlook Webinar on Thursday, August 15 at 1 p.m. CT, which will provide updated information about conditions, impacts, and outlooks.

Prepared By

Molly Woloszyn
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder
NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Doug Kluck
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information

Dennis Todey & Laura Nowatske
USDA Midwest Climate Hub

Audra Bruschi & Maren Stoflet
NOAA/National Weather Service Central Region

Jim Noel & Mike Welvaert
NOAA/National Weather Service/Ohio and North Central River Forecast Center

Anna Wolverton
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Mississippi Valley Division/NOAA National Weather Service

Melissa Widhalm
Midwestern Regional Climate Center/Purdue University

Denise Gutzmer
National Drought Mitigation Center

A special thank you to the state climate offices and National Weather Service offices in the Midwest region for providing local information on drought conditions and impacts included in the webinar and in this Drought Status Update.