Hazard Planning & Preparedness
Drought is a significant threat to communities across the nation, with unique challenges, cascading impacts, and associated hazards. By integrating drought into hazard mitigation and preparedness planning, planners, emergency managers, and other practitioners can help mitigate the drought impacts that compound and amplify the impacts of other natural hazards.
This National Weather Service hazard outlook map shows the risk of rapid onset drought (flash drought) development during the next 2–4 weeks.
Forecasters use initial conditions, like existing dryness (e.g., soil moisture), temperature, and precipitation outlooks, to assess the risk of rapid drought development. Rapid onset drought risk areas (yellow) can give users, such as farmers making decisions about planting and supplemental irrigation, an early warning of the potential for hot and dry conditions.
The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center produces daily fire weather outlooks, which delineate areas of the continental U.S. where pre-existing fuel conditions, combined with forecast weather conditions, will result in a significant threat for the ignition and/or spread of wildfires. This map shows the 1-day fire weather outlook, alongside the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor.
Air temperature can have wide-ranging effects on natural processes. Warmer air temperatures increase evapotranspiration—which is the combination of evaporation from the soil and bodies of water and transpiration from plants—and lower soil moisture.
Learn MoreFlash drought is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn MoreExtreme weather events can interact or cascade—where one disaster event triggers or changes the probability of another event. For example, drought conditions can increase the probability of large-scale wildfires, and droughts are often accompanied by extreme heat. By including drought in multi-hazard planning, a community can consolidate its resources and develop coordinated responses before a disaster.
Learn MoreExtreme weather events can interact or cascade—where one disaster event triggers or changes the probability of another event. For example, drought conditions can increase the probability of large-scale wildfires, and droughts are often accompanied by extreme heat. By including drought in multi-hazard planning, a community can consolidate its resources and develop coordinated responses before a disaster.
Learn MoreDuring drought conditions, fuels for wildfire, such as grasses and trees, can dry out and become more flammable. Drought can also increase the probability of ignition and the rate at which fire spreads. Temperature, soil moisture, humidity, wind speed, and fuel availability (vegetation) are all factors that interact to influence the frequency of large wildfires.
Learn More2-4 Week Hazard Outlook
Risk of Rapid Onset Drought
National Weather Service forecasters predict that rapid drought development (also known as "flash drought") may occur in the coming 2–4 weeks.
Forecast Risk of Fire Weather
Elevated
Fire weather conditions are forecast to be elevated for temperature, wind, and relative humidity. Learn more about these designations.
Critical
Fire weather conditions are forecast to be critical for temperature, wind, and relative humidity. Learn more about these designations.
Extremely Critical
Fire weather conditions are forecast to be extremely critical for temperature, wind, and relative humidity. Learn more about these designations.
Isolated Dry Thunderstorms
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a forecast for isolated dry thunderstorms. This heightens the risk of fire ignition due to cloud-to-ground lightning, assuming a dry fuel bed. Learn more about these designations.
Scattered (Critical) Dry Thunderstorms
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a forecast for scattered (critical) dry thunderstorms. This heightens the risk of fire ignition due to cloud-to-ground lightning, assuming a dry fuel bed. Learn more about these designations.
U.S. Drought Monitor
D0 - Abnormally Dry
Abnormally Dry (D0) indicates a region that is going into or coming out of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. View typical impacts by state.
D1 – Moderate Drought
Moderate Drought (D1) is the first of four drought categories (D1–D4), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. View typical impacts by state.
D2 – Severe Drought
Severe Drought (D2) is the second of four drought categories (D1–D4), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. View typical impacts by state.
D3 – Extreme Drought
Extreme Drought (D3) is the third of four drought categories (D1–D4), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. View typical impacts by state.
D4 – Exceptional Drought
Exceptional Drought (D4) is the most intense drought category, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. View typical impacts by state.
This National Weather Service hazard outlook map shows the risk of rapid onset drought (flash drought) development during the next 2–4 weeks.
Forecasters use initial conditions, like existing dryness (e.g., soil moisture), temperature, and precipitation outlooks, to assess the risk of rapid drought development. Rapid onset drought risk areas (yellow) can give users, such as farmers making decisions about planting and supplemental irrigation, an early warning of the potential for hot and dry conditions.
The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center produces daily fire weather outlooks, which delineate areas of the continental U.S. where pre-existing fuel conditions, combined with forecast weather conditions, will result in a significant threat for the ignition and/or spread of wildfires. This map shows the 1-day fire weather outlook, alongside the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor.
National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters issue rapid onset drought (ROD) risk areas on Thursdays, with the potential for updates on the following Mondays, from April 1–October 31.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center hazards outlook is issued between 2–5 p.m. ET, and this Drought.gov map updates at 7 p.m. ET.
This map is updated daily with data from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. View more fire weather outlooks.
Air temperature can have wide-ranging effects on natural processes. Warmer air temperatures increase evapotranspiration—which is the combination of evaporation from the soil and bodies of water and transpiration from plants—and lower soil moisture.
Learn MoreFlash drought is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn MoreExtreme weather events can interact or cascade—where one disaster event triggers or changes the probability of another event. For example, drought conditions can increase the probability of large-scale wildfires, and droughts are often accompanied by extreme heat. By including drought in multi-hazard planning, a community can consolidate its resources and develop coordinated responses before a disaster.
Learn MoreExtreme weather events can interact or cascade—where one disaster event triggers or changes the probability of another event. For example, drought conditions can increase the probability of large-scale wildfires, and droughts are often accompanied by extreme heat. By including drought in multi-hazard planning, a community can consolidate its resources and develop coordinated responses before a disaster.
Learn MoreDuring drought conditions, fuels for wildfire, such as grasses and trees, can dry out and become more flammable. Drought can also increase the probability of ignition and the rate at which fire spreads. Temperature, soil moisture, humidity, wind speed, and fuel availability (vegetation) are all factors that interact to influence the frequency of large wildfires.
Learn MoreCascading Hazards
Extreme weather events can coincide, interact, or cascade—where one disaster event triggers or changes the probability of another event or a series of events.
Planning Integration
By including drought in multi-hazard planning in an integrated way, a community can consolidate its resources and develop coordinated responses before a disaster.
Drought Impacts on Hazard Planning and Preparedness
Drought is a slow-onset disaster that can impact a region for months or years. It can have far-reaching effects on a community and intersect with other natural hazards. Hazard mitigation planning is conducted to reduce the impact of natural disasters, including drought, by reducing loss of life and property. Multi-hazard risk and vulnerability assessments can examine the individual risks of specific hazards (drought, flood, etc.), as well as the risks of successive hazards, compound risks of multiple coinciding hazards, and the potential for interacting risk relationships.
As communities undertake comprehensive or hazard mitigation planning, assuring that drought is included in the discussion can allow the community to consolidate its resources and develop coordinated responses before the onset of a disaster or multiple extreme events. Integrating multiple hazards into local planning efforts is a key aspect of community resilience and can help facilitate a more rapid recovery from drought conditions. The American Planning Association recommends that water suppliers and land-use planning agencies be involved in the planning process to allow for synchronization of data, policies, actions, and resources, as well as averting possible conflicting policies and duplicative actions.
Drought Early Warning for the Hazard Planning and Preparedness Sector
Many different organizations are responsible for drought preparedness and planning, including water resource agencies, water and energy utilities, farmers, land managers, community planners, city councils, emergency managers, and others. Incorporating drought early warning into existing hazard mitigation plans can better help communities cope with the impacts of drought and related extreme events. NIDIS partners with nongovernmental organizations like the American Planning Association (APA) and the Natural Hazards Center, as well as federal agencies that support drought planning, such as the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, FEMA, and the EPA, to develop planning resources and help further advance drought preparedness across the country.
The resources below are organized by the key components of a drought early warning system: (1) drought observation and monitoring; (2) drought planning and preparedness; (3) prediction and forecasting of drought; (4) communication and outreach to the public and affected sectors; and (5) interdisciplinary and applied research on topics of concern to drought-affected sectors.
Planning & Preparedness
Prediction & Forecasting
Communication & Outreach
Interdisciplinary Research & Applications
Related Content
Research & Learn | Monitoring Drought
Drought monitoring involves measuring changes in precipitation, temperature, and surface and groundwater supplies, among other factors. Learn more about the importance of monitoring drought.
Communicating About Drought
Drought communication is important not only for informing people about current drought conditions, but also providing drought education and encouraging people to take actions that promote adaptation.