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Weekly Look Ahead

April 25, 2024 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–7 Day

The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center's 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast calls for moderate-to-heavy precipitation accumulations ranging from 2 to 5+ inches (liquid) across western Washington and Oregon, as well as eastern portions of the Southern and Central Plains and lower Midwest. 

Lighter accumulations (less than 2 inches) are expected in areas of the Central and Northern Rockies and Upper Midwest, while isolated light shower activity is expected in portions of Northern California, the Great Basin, and the Northeast.

6–10 Day

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's 6–10 day outlooks call for a moderate-to-high probability of above-normal temperatures across most of the lower 48 states, with the exception of the far West and the western Great Basin, where cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected. In Alaska, there is a low-to-moderate probability of above-normal temperatures in the southern half of the state and below-normal temperatures north of the Brooks Range. Below-normal precipitation is expected across the Eastern Tier of the lower 48 states, as well as out West in western Colorado, Utah, and southern Nevada. Elsewhere, there is a high probability of above-normal precipitation across the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, eastern New Mexico, Texas, the Plains states, and the Upper Midwest.

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for April 23, 2024, written by David Simeral (Western Regional Climate Center) and Tsegaye Tadesse (National Drought Mitigation Center).

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Official NOAA Drought Outlooks

Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Is Predicted To...

Official NOAA Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75

Official NOAA Precipitation Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%

Official NOAA Temperature Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).