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Weekly Look Ahead

April 11, 2024 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–5 Day

During the next five days (April 11–15, 2024), a low pressure system and trailing cold front will move offshore of the East Coast on April 11. Locally heavy rainfall (more than 1 inch) is forecast to accompany this cold front. From April 12–14, much drier weather is forecast throughout the eastern and central U.S. By April 14, another low pressure system is expected to track inland to the West with additional rain and high-elevation snow. Later on April 15, another round of wet weather is anticipated for the northern Great Plains and Midwest.

6–10 Day

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's 6–10 day outlook (valid April 16–20, 2024) favors above-normal temperatures across the eastern and southern contiguous U.S., with below-normal temperatures most likely across the northern Great Plains, northern to central Rockies, and Pacific Northwest. Increased above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast for most of the eastern and central contiguous U.S., excluding Florida, where below-normal precipitation is slightly favored. Below-normal precipitation is also more likely along the West Coast.

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for April 9, 2024, written by Brad Pugh and Anthony Artusa (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center).

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Official NOAA Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75

Official NOAA Drought Outlooks

Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Is Predicted To...

Official NOAA Precipitation Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%

Official NOAA Temperature Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).